THE TWO-STATE DELUSION

The Two-State Delusion

   The Biden administration is leading a push to recognize a Palestinian state that will be a danger to the security of Israel

   BY ELLIOTT ABRAMS

   FEBRUARY 01, 2024

   Below it is an large Excerpt of the article:

   There are some words missing in all the calls for a Palestinian state—words like democracy, human rights, and liberty. EU Foreign Minister Borrell said in 2022 that “our message to the incoming Israeli government, which we hope will confirm the country’s full commitment to the shared values of democracy and rule of law, and with which we hope to engage in serious conversation on the conflict and the need to re-open the political horizon for the Palestinian population.” This is not new: In his speech in Israel in 2013, President Obama called for “Two states for two peoples. … [T]he only way for Israel to endure and thrive as a Jewish and democratic state is through the realization of an independent and viable Palestine.”

   It seems the state on the west side of the Jordan River, Israel, must be democratic but not the new state on the east bank, Palestine. Why the distinction? Because no one thinks the Palestinian state will be a democratic state—or seems much to care. Palestine might be free, but no one seems to care whether Palestinians will be.

Why not? Natan Sharansky (an Israeli politician) explained in 2000 that “Israel and the West are too quick to rely on strong leaders for stability. Democracies often prefer to deal with dictators who have full control.” That was the view Israel took in the Oslo Accords, handing the Palestinians over to Yasser Arafat. His dictatorial control was thought to be an advantage to Israel, for he would supposedly crush Hamas. The Gaza war demonstrates how tragically wrong that outlook proved to be, because the corrupt and ineffective Fatah autocracy proved to be no match for the corrupt and effective Hamas terrorists who turned Gaza into an armed camp.

   Today, just about no one but Sharansky is calling for Palestinian democracy. The Arab states are not, of course, because not one of them is a democracy. The Europeans and Americans are not, I imagine, because they do not believe the Palestinians can do it—can create a working democracy. So the U.S. and the EU are willing to create a Palestinian state in the hope that it would be a better autocracy than it is at present—better at policing the terrorist groups, better at fighting corruption, and less repressive.

   How likely is that? Fighting corruption, for example, requires a free press to investigate it and independent courts to try cases. But no one (except Sharansky!) is calling for any of that as a precondition for declaring a Palestinian state. So it is highly likely that a new Palestinian Authority will soon be as corrupt as the current one.

But there’s a much deeper problem: No one is explaining how that state will live in “peace and security” with Israel if its people would prefer war with Israel. What if, to use Blinken’s language, “what the Palestinian people want” is mostly to destroy Israel?

And they may: Opinion polls suggest that very many Palestinians and not just those in Hamas consider the State of Israel illegitimate, want it eliminated, and favor “armed struggle.” That is, their Palestinian nationalism is not positive—mainly about building a democratic, prosperous, peaceful state of their own—but negative, mainly about destroying the Jewish state. According to a recent poll, if the last parliamentary election were repeated now, Hamas would win an outright majority.

But then what is the nature of the Palestinian state that Western governments are demanding? A terrorist state? A state with a coalition government that is half terrorist, based on admittance of Hamas into the PLO? A state that is an autocracy where “armed struggle” against Israel is widely popular and is prevented only by severe repression by local authorities—who are bound to become increasingly unpopular as they resist the popular will for a fight? Or, conversely, a state like Lebanon, where the authorities are too weak to restrain Hezbollah and in fact have become complicit in the group’s activities? And creating that state is supposed to be the solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?

   Despite all this, Israelis are supposed to be reassured that a Palestinian state will be no threat to them because it will have no army and will be “demilitarized.” Israelis are not so dumb—nor should we be.

   Perhaps there will be no standing army. But when the Palestinians decide to “upgrade” their police by purchasing armored personnel carriers or night vision goggles, or “defensive” weapons like drones or submachine guns, who will stop them? If your answer is “surely, Israel,” you may be right—but Israel will no longer be able to do that the way it now does, by patrolling the West Bank. Instead its only recourse would be invading or attacking the new sovereign state. Would those Israeli measures to enforce the demilitarization be applauded and defended by the British and the Germans and the U.N. secretary general? Will they be defended in Washington? Or will they be called acts of war across sacred international boundaries? Wait until the International Court of Justice gets the case.

   What other “demilitarization” measures will be imposed by the “international community” on Palestine? A ban on treaties with other nations? A ban on permitting an Iranian embassy, which will on the day it opens be a nest of spies and an arms depot? What about a Syrian embassy, or a Lebanese embassy with a Hezbollah presence? Who will inspect diplomatic pouches carrying arms and ammunition for terrorists? Will dual use items be banned in all Palestinian commercial agreements with Russia and China and North Korea?

It’s true that limitations on Palestinian sovereignty can be built into any “two-state solution” and Palestinian officials can sign them in blood. But the blood will fade; the limitations will be viewed by Palestinians the way most Germans viewed the limitations imposed by the Versailles Treaty. Those who seek to live with them will be called traitors, and those who demand abrogating or violating them will be “nationalists” and heroes. And the Israelis will find many deaf ears in the “international community” about the growing dangers, until they try to do their own enforcement. Then they will hear loud voices in every U.N. body and dozens of world capitals, denouncing their aggression against the new Palestine.

   Now add Iran to that mix. The great threats to Israel today (unless and until Iran develops a nuclear weapon) all come from Iranian proxy groups: Hezbollah, the Houthis, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and the rest. The day a Palestinian state is declared is the day Iran hypes up its efforts—which are already considerable—to turn the West Bank into what Gaza became in the last decade: a maze of arsenals, training centers, tunnels, launching sites, and bases for terrorist attacks. Only this time the geography will be different, because the hills of Judea and Samaria overlook Ben-Gurion Airport, Jerusalem, and the coastal plain where most of Israel’s economy, its largest port, and its largest city are located.

   Iranian-supplied weapons will be sneaked into “Palestine” from Syria, over the Jordanian border. Even if one postulates that the Jordanians may try to stop this, they have been unable to stop the current weapons flows and Iran will be trying much harder. Israelis now refer to the Iranian “ring of fire” that surrounds them, in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Gaza, and to a lesser extent the West Bank. Adding a Palestinian state will be a great Iranian achievement and will add a vital piece to that ring of fire. Amazingly enough, that seems to be the new “Biden Doctrine”—as Thomas Friedman describes it in The New York Times. The Biden Doctrine calls for recognizing a Palestinian state (“NOW,” as Friedman puts it) “that would come into being only once Palestinians had developed a set of defined, credible institutions and security capabilities to ensure that this state was viable and that it could never threaten Israel.” But in the real world those institutions and capabilities will never be developed, so the pressure will mount from day one to lower the bar and start planning Independence Day parties. First the Arabs, then the Europeans, and finally the United States will recognize whatever exists in the West Bank and Gaza; that’s the Biden Doctrine when it comes to fruition.

   The other relevant part of that new Doctrine, according to Friedman, is “a strong and resolute stand on Iran, including robust military retaliation against Iran’s proxies and agents in the region.” In other words, the same mug’s game the United States has been playing for 40 years: Iran pays no price for its murderous activities because we punish only the proxies while Iran itself is sacrosanct. Biden policy toward Iran has from his first day in office been to weaken sanctions, to watch as Iran moves toward a nuclear weapon, and to keep repeating that “we want no conflict with Iran” while it attacks American soldiers. Leaks from the administration that it will soon hit Iranian targets in Iraq and Syria, giving Iran time to vacate those sites, suggest that the United States will continue to play slightly new versions of the old game.

   Creating a Palestinian state will not end the “Israeli-Palestinian conflict” because it will not end the Palestinian and now Iranian dream of eliminating the State of Israel. On the contrary, it can be a launching pad for new attacks on Israel and will certainly be viewed that way by the Jewish state’s most dedicated enemies. A peaceful Palestinian state that represents no threat to Israel is a mirage. It is an illusion indulged by people in the West who want to seem progressive and compassionate, and those in the Arab world who fear resisting the powerful anti-Israel currents that circulate there and are now fortified by Iran. The future security of Israel depends in good part on resisting the two-state formula for endless conflict.

   (*) Elliott Abrams is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and the chairman of the Vandenberg Coalition.

   Note: It is very sinister that even those who write precise and excellent texts like this do not include any reference to Qatar as the state responsible for the terror and shameful accomplice to what happened on October 7th, before and after, by providing support in all ways to the Hamas terrorists. - Josimar Salum

   https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/israel-middle-east/articles/two-state-delusion

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